Maket News - January, 2007FX and Money Markets
In January local FX market continues to be extremely volatile. As it was predicted, in first half of the month the US dollar fell vs. KZT from 127.00 to 124.86. However, next day US dollar jumped up to the level of 125.26 and continued the corrective rally till the end of the month. On the 31st of January it was fixed at 126.36. Generally, the market stayed short and banks started to close their short positions which were opened in the beginning of month. As a result, on January, 31st US dollar exchange rate has been fixed at a level 126.36. It is necessary to note, that presence of National bank in the market substantially constrained the strengthening of KZT.
In February we are expecting some strengthening of national currency up to a level 125.25.
However, the market remains more than neutral, that is why exist possibility of prices correction for the level of January’s closing, i.e. 125,00 - 125,50 is possible.
International reserves of the country for the January has raised and reached $35,640 billion.
In the monetary market, there were no serious changes at all. Rates for short term deposits were in a range of 0.05 % - 3.00 % per annual.
Yield-To-Maturity of 28-day's notes rose from 4.64 % up to 4,84 %.
Inflation rate in January was high and has been fixed at 1.1%. In December inflation rate was 0.9 %.
FGeneral economic indexes
|
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
|
GDP,%
|
9.8
|
13.5
|
9.5
|
9.3
|
9.4
|
9.6
|
10,6 (Jan-Sen)
|
|
Trade balance, mln $
|
2,168
|
983
|
1,987
|
3,679
|
7,315
|
10,497
|
11872 (Jan-Oct)
|
|
Oil volume, tn
|
30.6
|
40.1
|
47.2
|
51.5
|
59.4
|
61.9
|
58,9 (Jan-Nov)
|
|
Volume cooper, tn
|
266
|
306
|
401
|
472
|
515
|
419
|
387 (Jan-Nov)
|
|
Inflation, %
|
9.8
|
6.4
|
6.6
|
6.8
|
6.7
|
7.6
|
8,1 (Nov-Nov)
|
|
Grain yield, in mln tn
|
11.6
|
15.9
|
15.9
|
14.8
|
12.4
|
13.5
|
18
|
|
Industrial outputs, %
|
14.6
|
13.5
|
9.8
|
8.8
|
10.1
|
4.6
|
6,6 (Jan-Nov)
|
|
Unemployment level
|
3.7
|
10.4
|
9.3
|
9.1
|
8.6
|
8.4
|
7,9 (Nov)
|
FInternational Markets
In January on the oil markets was also observed high volatility. The price for the Brent oil has decreased to the level of 50 dollars per barrel, though subsequently it was stabilized on the level of 56 dollars.
In January there was strengthening US dollar in the international currency markets. In the end of month at FOMC session was accepted decision to leave the interest rate constant – 5.25%.
|
|
Open
|
Max
|
Min
|
Close
|
|
EUR/USD
|
1.3196
|
1.3297
|
1.2864
|
1.3033
|
|
GBP/USD
|
1.9589
|
1.9917
|
1.9259
|
1.9637
|
|
USD/JPY
|
119.04
|
122.19
|
117.96
|
120.65
|
|
|
